If Perrottet loses, it won’t be because of climate policy

The recent federal election was heralded by many as the “climate” election. People passionate about climate change celebrated as a government that had rejected liberalism in favour of populism was booted from office, washed away by a teal wave.

The early signs are that the federal Coalition has not learnt its lesson – rejecting market-based decarbonisation tools (such as the government’s proposed changes to the safeguard mechanism) in favour of shallow slogans that seek to recapture the political magic of Tony Abbott’s wildly successful “no carbon tax” campaign against the Gillard government.

As the Morrison government fell, all and sundry within the climate advocacy movement – from high-profile commentators to NGOs and Climate 200 independents – tripped over themselves to reject accusations they were partisan agents who cared less about climate action and more about destroying those on the centre-right of the political spectrum.

For a select few, this is undoubtedly true. Some of the new independents are among the most effective members of the 47th parliament. But an ugly truth is emerging within the climate advocacy movement: many of those proclaiming to want bipartisanship in reality want nothing of the sort. Captivated by a voter/membership/donor base that has a visceral dislike of capitalism, the free market and the centre-right of politics, they support climate action only if it is enacted by those on the left – and only if the policy mechanics proposed to achieve it align with their ideological radar.

Encouraging the private sector to construct and operate the more than $300 billion in transmission infrastructure AEMO projects we need to connect renewables to the grid? Forget it – privatisation of “poles and wires” is an evil that must be ridiculed on Twitter as viciously as possible. Much better to have the government spend money it doesn’t have decarbonising a grid slowly and inefficiently.

Nothing exemplifies the ideological dogma of the climate movement better than their deafening silence in NSW. Whichever way you look at it, the NSW Coalition government is one of the most progressive in Australia when it comes to climate action. It has committed to a 70 per cent emissions reduction target by 2035 (NSW Labor has committed to 50 per cent). It has led the way in establishing Renewable Energy Zones, in which private-sector renewable energy projects will be fast-tracked to replace coal-fired power stations. It has banned single-use plastic bags. It has nation-leading marine carbon storage and rewilding policies.

Where is the celebration of this by the climate movement? Where are the media releases from the same groups that rightly sang the Albanese government’s praises from the rooftop for legislating an emissions reduction target of 43 per cent? Where is the criticism of NSW Labor’s lack of ambition and creativity in the climate and energy space?

This is not to say that the NSW government’s environmental record is beyond reproach. Species extinction, native forest logging and unnecessary land contamination are but some areas in which the government has questions to answer. But it is to say that the NSW election thus far has been a missed opportunity for the climate movement to prove they are “equal opportunity offenders” who target laggards on both the right and the left.

Instead, we have a handful of “climate independents” running as rebels without a cause against some of the most impactful voices for climate action anywhere in the country – ably supported by legions of self-styled climate activists who have decided that climate action can wait if it means they can indulge in glib attacks on Dominic Perrottet’s Catholicism, the NSW government’s commitment to asset recycling or the NSW Liberal Party’s preselection woes.

The great tragedy for those invested in climate action is that, should the NSW Coalition lose the election on Saturday, it will empower the reactionary right within Liberal and National parties around the country, who have had the knives out for the climate conscious NSW moderates for some time. “The NSW government went green and it still lost. Time to tack back to the right and embrace coal if the Coalition wants to win” – is the misguided mantra that you will hear daily on after-dark news shows, already suffering from amnesia regarding the reasons why the federal Liberals lost their heartland.

If the NSW Coalition lose, it will be for many reasons – but their position on climate should not be one of them. The climate movement must embrace centrism if it is to be taken seriously by decision-makers.

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