Between promise and pragmatism: Why renewables should lead and nuclear should wait

Australia faces an urgent need to decarbonise its energy grid as 90% of the coal-fired power fleet retires by 2035. Delaying coal’s exit risks severe economic, environmental, and reliability consequences, including billions more emissions and potential blackouts. Accelerating renewable energy deployment is critical, yet a pragmatic, evidence-based approach must also consider all low-emission technologies, including nuclear, to ensure a resilient, affordable, and sustainable energy future.

Key recommendations

1. Establish clear, technology-neutral environmental and biodiversity standards

• Implement nationally harmonised biodiversity and environmental standards for all new energy projects, including renewables, storage, and any future technologies.
• Define no-go zones, pollution limits, and clarify requirements around Indigenous and community consent to prevent opposition and protect Australia’s biodiversity, which is currently under severe threat.
• Reform the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act to align climate, energy, and biodiversity policies effectively.

2. Develop a comprehensive, costed energy transition master plan

• Refine nationally energy modelling approaches to take a robust total system cost modelling framework that accounts for all costs of delivering reliable electricity, including generation, storage, transmission, and maintenance.
• Use this model to identify the least-cost pathways to meet reliability and emissions targets transparently.
• Reflect and consider diverse characteristics and interactions of different technologies-such as rooftop solar, utility-scale solar, wind, and nuclear-to optimise the energy mix and infrastructure planning.

3. Urgently address energy shortfalls

• Recognise that approximately 21 GW of coal capacity will retire by 2035, creating a critical capacity gap that must be filled to avoid calamitous blackouts or costly coal extensions.
• Maintain bi-partisan policy commitment to investment in renewables, transmission and storage, to prevent expensive and inefficient policy whiplash.
• Address supply chain weaknesses, regulatory delays, and skills shortages that hinder renewable rollout, while acknowledging the ongoing competition for skilled labour globally.
• Avoid prolonging coal dependence by failing to act decisively on renewable capacity expansion.

4. Invest in domestic nuclear research and maintain an open, evidence-based approach

• Acknowledge that nuclear energy is not a timely or cost-effective solution for immediate energy needs due to long construction timelines and high costs.
• Recognise that small modular reactors (SMRs) remain commercially immature and current nuclear technologies have limitations and risks.
• Remain open to incorporating nuclear energy in the future if and when technological advancements reduce costs and address safety, waste, and proliferation concerns.
• Avoid polarising debates that frame renewables and nuclear as mutually exclusive, which risks policy paralysis.

Australia needs a balance –  building out renewable forms of energy balanced with prudent openness to emerging low-emission technologies, supported by clear environmental safeguards, comprehensive planning, and immediate action to close the looming energy capacity gap, securing Australia’s energy future.