Winning back the Coalition's missing middle
September 01, 2025
At the 2025 House of Representatives Election the number of Australians allocating their primary vote to candidates from the Liberal and National Parties (including their associated state and territory parties) hit a historic low of 31.8%. Unlike Labor, whose declining vote share has historically flowed back through the Greens, the Coalition cannot win elections from such a low primary vote base.
As demonstrated by this analysis of recent research conducted on behalf of Blueprint by YouGov, correcting this issue will be extremely difficult if the Coalition’s current policy approach and public perceptions of this approach continue.